Nate Silver - The Signal and the Noise
Thursday, October 4, 2012 at 7:00 pm
Put your money on chutzpah, and you’re likely to lose it, Silver says. In this primer on probability and uncertainty, the logician and fivethirtyeight.com blogger explains that overconfidence is one of the greatest pitfalls in predictions. In a series of examples drawn from politics, sports, stocks, and other iffy arenas, he shows that where the future is concerned, one should try a little skepticism--even humility.
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Published: Penguin Press - September 27th, 2012